It seems like just yesterday that we were all sitting in front of our televisions watching some ping-pong balls bounce around, waiting to see where the Cleveland Cavaliers would pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. Luckily for the Cavaliers, they jumped up a couple of spots and snagged the third overall pick. With the third pick in hand, the Cavs selected USC big man Evan Mobley there. Although, that was not the only thing that happened during this Cavs offseason. General manager Koby Altman had himself a busy summer.
He orchestrated a trade that brought Spanish-born, NBA veteran point guard Ricky Rubio to the Cavs. On top of that, Cleveland re-signed center Jarrett Allen to a five-year, $100 million contract, solidifying himself as a key member of the Cavaliers young core. Possibly the biggest and most surprising move Altman made, was swinging a sign-and-trade trade for former Chicago Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen. At this point in time, we really don’t know how Markkanen will fit into the rotation just yet this season, but he has looked good throughout the preseason.
I think that most Cavs fans would agree it was a pretty successful summer, on paper that is. Even still, with all that being said, I think Cavalier fans are expecting something from this team, that they cannot do. It’s a great young core with Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Mobley, Allen, Isaac Okoro, and Markkanen. They will stay close in most games this season. However, I think that the Cavs fans that are expecting a possible berth in the playoff play-in game, are dreaming.
Sure, even a loss in the play-in game would be a massively successful season, but I just don’t think it’s possible with the team constructed as it is. This Cavaliers team is young, and has a high ceiling. On top of that, they should be close in most of the games that they play. In my opinion, a successful season would be winning 25 games.
With such a young team, I think the playoffs are far-fetched, but that doesn’t mean that this season can’t be a successful one, and they could definitely do better than I anticipate. With that being said, let’s take a look at four predictions for the 2021-22 Cavalier season.
Cavs 2021-22 prediction #1: Sexton makes the All-Star Game
If any of you have read my articles previously, I am not shy about saying that I don’t like Collin Sexton’s fit with this group. I think he’s a great scorer, and a creative one at that. But, he seemingly fails to make others around him better. That doesn’t mean he won’t make the All-Star Game.
Last year he averaged 24 points per game, which put him in the top tier of scorers in the NBA. On top of that his assist numbers should go up with the additions of Mobley and Markkanen. The other part of this prediction, is that the All-Star game players are voted in by the fans. There have been movements in the past on social media, lobbying for Sexton to make the mid-season showcase. This year, the movement finally works, and Sexton makes his first career All-Star game.
Personally, I think a setting like the All-Star game is a place where Sexton would thrive. He gets to play with elite NBA players, while also showing off his offensive prowess. On top of that, there is basically no defense played in the game, so Sexton wouldn’t have to show his poor defending.
As much as I criticize Sexton, and thought it’d be sensible to trade him to the Golden State Warriors before the 2021 NBA Draft, he deserved to make the All-Star Game last year. It’s a perfect setting for him. So yes Cavalier fans, Sexton will make his first All-Star Game in 2021-2022, particularly with it being in Cleveland.
Cavs 2021-22 prediction #2: Okoro is relegated to the bench
I have a feeling that I’ll get some backlash for this, but it’s something I’ve thought since the Cavs drafted Okoro in 2020. Okoro has looked okay seemingly in training camp and the preseason. His defensive ability is something that never needs to be questioned. He gives 100 percent and will eventually be one of the better defenders in the NBA. However, the only problem with that is that the Cavs as a team are not a very good defensive team.
So, if Okoro is the only guy on the wing putting constant pressure on the ball-handler, that means guys like Sexton and Garland need to pick up their defense as well, which I don’t see them doing until later in the season. Being a great perimeter defender is great, but when the team around you is ineffective on that side of the court 90 percent of the time, Okoro’s effort and pressure really means nothing.
Still, Okoro is a great defender, and if there is one thing that would keep him in the starting lineup it would be that. Nonetheless, let’s talk about the other side of the court for a minute.
The NBA draft and draft analysis really baffles me. When the Cavaliers drafted Isaac Okoro with the fifth pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, my immediate reaction was oh, he’ll be a great rotation defender in a couple years. That was my thinking, that the Cavs had just selected a great defender who will be a role player. Well, here we are about a year removed from selecting him, and I still feel the same way.
Of all the lottery picks in 2020, who played at least 20 minutes per game, Okoro had the worst three-point shooting percentage, and really had the least impact of all of them. Killian Hayes is someone who also shot sub 30-percent from three, but he pitched in five assists per game. Granted, he was limited to only 26 games; he was more impactful when in there, though.
Furthermore, out of the top ten picks in 2020, Okoro’s 42 percent from the field is second-to-last, in front of only Hayes. Anthony Edwards also shot 42 percent from the field, but he also averaged nearly 20 points per game.
Listen, I still believe Okoro will grow, and will be a good NBA player. However, he’s just not a starter on basically any other team other than the Cavs. I think by late November/early December, Okoro will be replaced in the starting lineup by Lauri Markkanen. I hope I’m wrong, but Okoro doesn’t look that much different from last year, at least thus far in preseason.
Cavs 2021-22 prediction #3: Mobley finishes in a close second for Rookie of the Year
I’m not going to lie, I did not like the Mobley selection. I thought Jonathan Kuminga would have been a great fit for the Cavaliers, as well as Moses Moody. Although, I was wrong about this one. Mobley looked very skinny and a little bit out of his element in Summer League. Since coming into training camp and the preseason, he has the look of an NBA Rookie of the Year.
He looks like a great defender already, and with a couple of games under his belt, he could quickly become a top ten rim protector in the NBA. On top of that his offensive game looks ahead of schedule at this point. He’s expanding his shooting range, and is a beast around the basket.
There have been more than a couple of times in preseason that Mobley and Ricky Rubio have hooked up for an alley-oop, and that will play out in the regular season with those two and Garland. He really looks like a special talent, and I’m sure Cavs fans are excited to watch Mobley play.
With all that being said, I just don’t see how Jalen Green doesn’t win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award. He’s on a team that is in full rebuild mode like the Cavaliers. But, Jalen Green’s offensive arsenal is astonishing. He can shoot well from deep, drive to the lane and finish, and he attracts so much attention from defenders that he will become a good distributor.
I think Mobley will have the best overall season, considering I’m expecting him to become a top-five rim protector by the end of the season. But in the end, I think Green takes home the award. Everyone knows, scoring sells tickets!
Cavs 2021-22 prediction #4: They don’t finish last, but pick high in the lottery
Last year the Cavs finished 13th in the Eastern Conference, ahead of only the Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons. Unfortunately for Cavs fans, I don’t see much changing this year. I think the season overall will be much more exciting, but I don’t see the results changing as much. Even with that in mind, the Cavs can still have a very successful season.
If Evan Mobley continues to grow offensively, and becomes the player we all think he is capable of on defense, the season will be better automatically. On top of that, Darius Garland is expected to make that third-year leap, and become one of the best young point guards in the NBA.
All in all, the results in the box score might be the same, but if Mobley keeps improving, Okoro shows some offensive prowess, Sexton makes an All-Star Team, and Garland does make that leap, it will be a great season, with the added bonus of another lottery player in the 2022 NBA Draft!
I know this article may be disheartening to a lot of Cavs fans. A lot of the fans think this roster could possibly make a run to get into the playoffs. Personally, I don’t see a universe where that is possible. This season will, hopefully, be like Baker Mayfield’s first year for the Browns. The Cavs prove that they aren’t the cellar-dwellers they were when LeBron James left.
Mobley should make an immediate impact on both ends of the floor, and the backcourt duo of Sexton and Garland should continue to grow throughout the season. For Okoro, I think this will be a big year for him. He will either prove he was worth the top five pick by picking up his game on the offensive side, or be relegated to a role player.
Overall there are a lot of storylines to follow during this Cavs season. It should be a fun season, and let’s be honest, it can’t be worse than last year!