Cavs: Was the ‘D. Wade 5’ last season’s best lineup?

Captain Obvious alert: The Cleveland Cavaliers struggled last year.

The 2020-2021 season’s 3rd-youngest roster posted a minus-8.3 Net Rating while being plagued with serious offensive efficiency issues. Their most frequent lineup of Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Isaac Okoro, Larry Nance Jnr and Jarrett Allen recorded a Net Rating of minus-13.9 in 141 minutes – 83rd out of 87 five-man combinations which played at least 100 minutes per NBA.com. The result was an equivalent of 25 wins in 82 games of NBA normalcy – tied for 4th worst in the league.

But peruse last season’s data a little further and you’ll notice a Cavs lineup that not only featured a positive Net Rating but was also their second-most used five-man combination. This unit, the same as above except for Dean Wade over Nance Jr., logged 113 minutes which was 69th most out of 2000 lineups per NBA.com. The outcome was a Net Rating of plus-2.1.

Yes, swapping Nance Jr. for Kevin Love also yielded a positive Net Rating (+4.0) but that was in less than half the number of games and 33% fewer minutes. The next positive Net Rating lineup – Andre Drummond, Nance Jr., Cedi Osman, Damyean Dotson and Okoro – also had a significantly smaller sample size of 78 minutes in six games.

A Net Rating improvement of plus-16.0 between these lineups was significant. Per NBA.com the average differential between most-used units to second-most was actually the opposite: minus-1.43 last season. Only two teams – Atlanta (17.8) and Chicago (17) – saw bigger Net Rating increases in their next-most frequented lineups. In short (and as expected), a team’s second-most-used unit didn’t perform as well as its most-used. The Cavs went the other way and by a substantial margin.

In the midst of a difficult season, the Cavs found one lineup that dominated. What was the secret?

So what made this lineup a success? Was the data meaningful or just a murky coincidence? Was Dean Wade really the difference? Was this last season’s best lineup? Before jumping in, I wanted a name for this 5-man combination – first to save myself writing ‘lineup’ so much but later because it turns out this group deserved one:

I introduce to you the ‘D. Wade 5’

Not yet acquainted with Dean Wade or need a refresher? After going undrafted as a senior out of Kansas State, Wade signed a two-way contract with the Cavs in 2019 and despite only playing 71 NBA minutes the Cavs clearly saw something, locking him into a multi-year deal. Last season the 6’10” power forward increased his playing time to19.4 mpg in 63 games, averaging 6.0 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists while shooting 37% from three-point range. The partnership worked.

Despite the meaningful sample size of the ‘D.Wade 5’ however, lineup data remains highly contextual. The inherent variables in two, three, four and five-man combinations require supporting evidence to be understood with any clarity. Individually, all members of this unit posted negative differentials last season and while other metrics, especially a crazy defensive rating, agreed on the impact of this lineup, I wanted to see exactly what it looked like. All 113 minutes. In watching them all there was a lot to digest, but five things stood out examining the ‘D. Wade 5’. Here they are in ascending order:

Cavs: Evaluating the D.Wade 5 lineup – 5. Opponent lineup strength

One of the main variables in lineup data is the quality of opposition faced, especially given the typically-small sample sizes. In the ‘D. Wade 5’s 113 minutes I noted an average of 3.7 opponent starters* on the floor, which was even higher in low-minute totals against two-starter lineups in three games. Considering the four usual starters here for the Cavs – Sexland, Okoro and Allen – the playing field was pretty even for this unit.

Using this lineup tool, you’ll also see the distribution of the ‘D.Wade 5’ was largely consistent across all four quarters. This lineup wasn’t just a reactive or sporadic choice but rather a key rotational cog in games it was available, including three it started. The highlight was surely an overtime win against the Sixers in February with minutes in both the 4th quarter and extra period. Based on these factors, the ‘D-Wade 5’s positive Net Rating success was meaningful given the relative opposing strength it faced.

* A starter was defined as a player who started more than half of their total games last season or if they started the game I was watching.

Cavs: Evaluating the D.Wade 5 lineup – 4. Spacing

Captain Obvious here again: The Cavs were not a good shooting team last season. Their 33.6% from three was last in the NBA while also ranking third-worst in attempts (29.7). As such, spacing was clearly an issue – 19th percentile per Bball-Index.

But things improved with the ‘D.Wade 5.’ Their three-point percentage jumped to 40.6% on similar frequency per NBA.com which, while still not great, appeared to improve their spacing (28th percentile). The eye test supported these positives with Wade and Okoro either starting in the corners or ending up there after actions to initiate offensive sets. Okoro has a ways to go as a 3-point shooter but his 37% from the corners warranted attention in this lineup.

Wade on the other hand is a genuine gunslinger – give him an inch of space and he has already unloaded on you from downtown. The corners proved even more lethal for Wade, connecting on 50% of his 3-point attempts there last season.

The improved gravitational pull also gave Sexland the platform to play pick-and-roll tag-team with Jarrett Allen, which I’ll look at in more detail next. Their own 3-point shooting threats – Sexton 37% and Garland 40% – helped facilitate this action when they weren’t directly involved also. Sexton had easier paths to his spots in the floater range while Garland had more runway to his right hand or quick reads hitting Allen rolling.

Cavs: Evaluating the D.Wade 5 lineup – 3. The Double Drag Screen

With Jarrett Allen ranking in the 94th percentile as a pick-and-roll man per NBA tracking (1.41 points per possession), the extra spacing I mentioned above and Sexland’s penchant for attack it’s no surprise pick-and-rolls were a staple in the ‘D. Wade 5’s diet.

But one variation appeared to resemble something you might define as lineup symbiosis: The Double Drag Screen. Put simply, this involves two bigs screening for the ball-handler at the top, who uses the space and disorganization to attack. At the same time, one big rolls to the basket while the other pops to the perimeter.

There are always variations (both bigs roll, etc) but the standard execution aligned closely with the offensive strengths of this lineup: Allen as a roller and Wade as a pick-and-pop threat. The ensuing chaos was a perfect breeding ground for Sexton and Garland assaults from floater range and at the rim.

The only issue I had was that the Double Drag wasn’t used enough. I counted it just six times, with four of the possessions leading to a basket, foul or open three. More of this action (and the ‘D. Wade 5’) in 2021-22 please J.B. Bickerstaff.

Cavs: Evaluating the D.Wade 5 lineup – 2. Dean Wade at the 4

Let’s be clear. Any of the ‘D. Wade 5’ members deserve consideration for their name on the door here. They each played an important role in its 113 minutes of positive Net Rating wonder.

But despite seeing him throughout the season in other lineups, Dean Wade still stood out to me. Wade flashes everything the modern NBA 4 demands – shooting, defensive versatility and off-ball awareness. He just gets it.

Offensively, Wade played a big part in this lineup without ever needing the ball. He was quick to initiate screening actions to get things started including handoffs, swift pick-and-pops and flare screens. This was all done with the purpose of setting up Sexland/Allen actions and maximizing the space around them by coordinating with Okoro on the perimeter.

While Wade lacks foot speed, he attacked close-outs with multiple dribbles and made accurate passes. He had no hesitation launching three-pointers, including in semi-transition, which he mixed up with hard runs right to the front of the rim. The space (and attention) he brings is by itself enough to impact an offense.

Defensively, Wade was just as impressive. He may not possess elite tools on that end but he competes hard and shows good help awareness. I noted a number of highlights, which included forcing a Russell Westbrook drive into a difficult pass and rejecting Stephen Curry and Dejounte Murray who went after him in switches. John Wall was probably the only player I observed who beat Wade off the dribble, but he made sure nothing was easy. Wade’s foul rate of one per every 16 minutes played last season was impressive considering the role he’s required to play.

Wade brings a lot of basketball minutiae to the table too. He moves quickly to box out on the defensive glass and pressures rebounders on the other end. He appears to know plays in advance and calls them out for teammates. His movement early in the shot clock often sets the tone for a possession. He mixes up pick-and-pop action with fake screens and dribble re-actions into quick hand-offs. He has good hands, anticipates passes and has the body control to launch into vertical help. My favorite Wade play came against the Pacers where he rotated quickly to challenge Malcolm Brogdon at the rim, leading to his own pull-up 3-pointer in transition. It seemed to capture the essence of everything Wade brought, and brings.

All of these factors were invaluable to the ‘D. Wade 5’ and it should be clear to everyone that Dean Wade is here to stay.

Cavs: Evaluating the D.Wade 5 lineup – 1. Defense

As impressive as everything above was, it was the ‘D-Wade 5’s defense which rose to the top of my observations. Their ridiculous 100.4 points per 100 possessions conceded was 5th best out of 87 lineups which played 100 or more minutes last season. Despite a mostly conventional approach, the film backed up the numbers. With respect to Dean Wade, Jarrett Allen – both individually and schematically – was the key.

He may struggle against stronger players, but Allen’s versatility allowed the ‘D. Wade 5’ to play an effective drop coverage anytime they involved him in pick-and-roll action. Allen’s length and mobility allowed him to cover both the roller and challenge the ball-handler. He struggled to rebound at times for someone at his size but this conservative approach worked. Together with switching whenever Wade was involved in actions, this lineup conceded fewer free throw and three-point attempts per-100 possessions than any Cavs lineup that played at least 10 games last season.

Sexland deserve credit here too. While it helped them funneling the ball handler towards Allen, they competed and communicated, giving up little that was easy. Okoro was matched up against bigger wings at times and brought the defensive chops he was drafted for. He’s stronger than he looks and played smart for a rookie. Schematically he was a strong fit with this lineup.

The numbers needed a second glance but the eye test confirmed what they were saying – a conventional, low risk, low mistake scheme centered around drop coverage with Allen and switching with Wade was incredibly effective. Beyond the ‘D. Wade 5’ it will be interesting to see how J.B. Bickerstaff incorporates Lauri Markkanen and Evan Mobley into these defensive schemes. Watch this space.

Cavs: Evaluating the D.Wade 5 lineup – Verdict and Outlook

It’s clear that based on the numbers, film and sample size this lineup was a strong contender for the Cavs’ best last year. It may have played conservatively with limited nuance but there was cohesion, versatility and purpose. This five-man combination proved it could be called upon in a variety of situations the Cavs faced, holding its own and then some. The ‘D. Wade 5’ was the real deal.

With training camp imminent, the big question is how much might we see the ‘D. Wade 5’ in 2021-22? Despite drafting Evan Mobley and signing Lauri Markkanen, the answer could be quite a bit. Larry Nance Jr. is gone, Kevin Love’s status is awkward at best and Mobley’s development will need time. Markkanen hasn’t exactly been the standard for durability either. An injury or absence could see this lineup being important for a Cavs team seeking relevance again.

J.B. Bickerstaff may have no choice but to play this lineup. He may need more defensive versatility against a particular player or unit. He may just need to steady the ship for a few minutes or a quarter. He might just want to see Dean Wade on the floor doing Dean Wade things. With an extra season of experience, I would expect to see them early and often.

So, what’s the final verdict then? Was the ‘D. Wade 5’ last season’s best lineup for the Cleveland Cavaliers? Captain Obvious says yes.

Thanks to InStat’s lineup filtering tool for the video clips (subscription only).