One of the most difficult awards to predict every season is the NBA’s Most Improved Player award. By definition it’s all projection: which player who was not-so-good last year will be much better next year? If people were good at predicting the future the world would look a lot different.
The Cavs are as good a place as any to look for a Most Improved Player candidate, as they have an entire starting lineup’s worth of young players hoping to take a step forward. Chief among those players ready to break out is rising-third year point guard Darius Garland.
How can the Cavs’ point guard Darius Garland take a leap forward and win the NBA’s Most Improved Player award?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are incredibly high on their young point guard, and so is the rest of the league. Garland took that first step forward a year ago, increasing his scoring and assists averages by a considerable margin. He shot better, was a better defender and overall became a player who helped his team rather than hurt it.
That’s why many around the league are higher on Garland than Collin Sexton, because of the idea that he can help his team win in more areas than Sexton. What will it take for that to not become an idea but a reality? What needs to happen for Garland to win the 2021-22 Most Improved Player award? Let’s check three boxes to get Garland in the running.
Cavs: 3 crucial keys to Darius Garland winning Most Improved – Increase scoring above 20 points per game
While player impact is so much more than simply scoring, it remains the most visible and therefore the most heavily weighted statistic when evaluating improvement in a player.
Last year Garland increased his minutes, volume and efficiency, which resulted in a 5.1 points per game increase from his rookie year. He will need to take a similar leap this year, which is absolutely possible if his efficiency takes a small step forward and his volume takes a moderate leap up as well.
Increasing his average by another five points will clear the 20 points per game threshold (22.5 or so), an important visual, and give a concrete number for voters to grasp onto. It’s more difficult to go from 17 to 22 than it is to increase by five points starting from a lower point as he did a year ago. Garland will have to be up to the task.
There is a major opportunity for Garland to not only increase personally but also increase his standing among his fellow young point guards. Ja Morant and Trae Young are almost post-leap, so if he can inhabit the space as the next up-and-comer that will give him plenty of buzz. The best way to do that is by increasing his scoring.
Cavs: 3 crucial keys to Darius Garland winning Most Improved – Be acknowledged as a better player than Collin Sexton
Darius Garland plays in a backcourt alongside another talented young guard, Collin Sexton, who made a leap himself last year and leads this team in shots.
Garland doesn’t necessarily need to pass Sexton in shots or even scoring average, but he needs to be widely acknowledged as a better player than Sexton. Otherwise, it will be difficult to gain votes from those who didn’t pick Sexton last year.
There is absolutely a path to that, and it involves passing and defense. Garland showed last year that he could capably run an offense, and now he has to show he’s more than just capable. Better offensive talent around him this season should only help him.
The other area is more difficult, but involves defense. Both Garland and Sexton are small guards who struggle on defense. Garland has very quick hands, and if he can increase his steal totals while demonstrating both on tape and via advanced stats that he is improved as a defender, and improved past Sexton, it will go a long way towards establishing his candidacy and drawing in voters despite a likely poor record for the team overall.
Cavs: 3 crucial keys to Darius Garland winning Most Improved – Have a big game on primetime television
In the end, basketball is about the games, and incredible performances on national television draw viewers, generate conversations among fans and media and lead to the kind of public “buzz” that buoys award candidates to become award recipients.
Darius Garland plays for a likely lottery team in a small market. To generate that buzz he is going to need to have a major performance on a national stage.
If Garland can pop out for 35 points, 10 assists and a handful of steals, duel an opposing star down the stretch and play a part in a marquee win, suddenly his campaign has juice.
This can work in the opposite direction as well. If he puts together an excellent season but goes 2-for-12 and 3-for-9 in his only national television games, it will cast a pallor over his candidacy, fair or not.
It’s absolutely possible that Garland can put together a season worthy of winning the award without such a spotlight game, but most likely some of his direct competitors will have more chances to put those together.
Darius Garland is an exciting young player whose arrow is pointed up, and many around the league are ready for a leap to occur. If it comes on schedule it will bring hope to the Cavs and potentially hardware to Garland’s trophy case.