The Cleveland Cavaliers have historically addressed their shooting guard position by committee, rotating various players through the role. Even at the peak of the LeBron James title team it was J.R. Smith playing the 2 rather than an expensive or highly-drafted option.
In the rare instances that the Cavaliers did invest more heavily in the position, the move tended not to work out. Dion Waiters was the fourth overall pick in his draft, and ended up being shipped out of town when he couldn’t survive alongside LeBron James.
Positions are fluid in the modern NBA. The Cleveland Cavaliers have to decide what they have to know what to do in the NBA Draft and free agency.
That leads the Cavaliers to an important question entering the offseason. Cleveland has built out their current shooting guard rotation almost by accident, with two thirds of their minutes at the position going to players they drafted to be a point guard and a small forward, respectively.
Is that good enough to work? Is there future of the position on the current roster? Or should the Cavaliers start to think about addressing that 48 minutes per game in a more intentional way? The Cavs are working to figure that out now, before the offseason. Let’s look into how the position played out this past year and what it would look like to make a move this summer.
Evaluating the state of the SG position: Who is on the roster?
The starter for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2019-20 was rookie Darius Garland, playing in a role shifted off-the-ball while second year guard Collin Sexton ran the point. This past season head coach J.B. Bickerstaff swapped the two players, with Garland playing all of his minutes as the point guard and Sexton starting at the 2.
In some ways that worked, as Sexton had a career year averaging 24.3 points per game on a career-best 51.9 percent effective field goal percentage (balancing his field goal percentage with what a shot is worth). In total he played around half of his total minutes at the 2, sliding to point guard when Garland was off the court. Entering his fourth season, Sexton will be extension-eligible this offseason and is under contract for $6.34 million next season.
When he did so, he was most often paired in the backcourt with Isaac Okoro. Although drafted with the hope he could become the team’s longtime small forward to play alongside Sexton and Garland, at 6’5″ Okoro is more naturally suited to play the 2 and did so for around 1,000 of his 2,000 minutes this season. As a rising second-year player, Okoro is owed $6.72 million next year.
Dylan Windler was selected 26th overall in the 2019 NBA Draft and injuries have limited him to just 31 games in his career, all this past season. He was drafted to be a sniper on the wing, and at 6’6″ could be a bigger option at the 2. As a first round pick he is guaranteed for $2.24 million next season, and the Cavaliers will need to decide by October whether to pick up his fourth year option.
Finally, the Cavaliers have a decision waiting for Damyean Dotson. The onetime New York Knicks shooting guard has a non-guaranteed contract for $2 million next season. Ideally Windler would replace him in the rotation, but with his injury history Dotson played frequently this past season, around 460 minutes at the 2, per Cleaning the Glass.
Evaluating the state of the SG position: Strengths
Because of the draft equity the Cleveland Cavaliers have invested at adjacent positions, the majority of the minutes being played at the 2 for this team are by extremely talented players. Collin Sexton and Isaac Okoro are polar opposites when it comes to how they play, but both have athleticism and natural talent to leverage in the role.
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Sexton in particular gives them a scoring punch. He ranked 18th in the league in scoring this past season with 24.3 points per game. Not every team gets that level of offensive firepower from their shooting guard position; for every Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, there are teams starting 3-and-D options like Danny Green or Duncan Robinson.
Sexton may not have excelled running the team as the point guard, he is a plus-passer as a team’s secondary creator. He averaged 4.4 assists this past season, even more than he did as the “point guard” in his two previous seasons.
The Cavaliers also have lineup versatility. Their starting lineup with Sexton at the 2 is more offense-oriented, but by swapping Sexton out for Isaac Okoro the team suddenly has an aspiring stopper on the wing to check opposing guards. When healthy, Dylan Windler provides the off-ball shooter archetype many teams employ at the 2.
Cleveland is also young at the position, with all of their three primary options still on their rookie contracts and developing as players. That also means none are exceptionally expensive, although Sexton is hurtling towards either an extension or a restricted free agency contract after next season.
Strengths: Scoring + passing (with Sexton as the starter); lineup versatility, contract stability, upside
Evaluating the state of the SG position: Needs
Any evaluation of Collin Sexton at the 2-guard has to include how he effects the team’s ability to defend. His defense, questionable while playing point guard, is even more of a liability at shooting guard as he tries to take on more wings. One advanced plus-minus metric put him in the 16th percentile of players on defense (per Dunks & Threes) this past season.
This becomes even more of a problem when he is paired with Darius Garland; both guards are just 6’1″ tall, survivable for a point guard but a major problem doubled up in the backcourt. Teams such as the Portland Trail Blazers have struggled to become a high-end team starting two small guards, and theirs are 6’2″ (Damian Lillard) and 6’3″ (CJ McCollum).
If the Cavaliers were to move on from Collin Sexton, which they reportedly are open to doing (subscription required), that would likely slide Isaac Okoro over to start alongside Garland. That theoretically solves the defensive problem, as Okoro projects to be a wing stopper. Thus far in his career, however, Okoro has struggled to excel in that role, and his offensive shortcomings obscure an easy projection as the long-term starter, whether at the 2 or the 3.
Evaluating things currently with Sexton on the team, the Cavaliers’ two primary options also play significant minutes at adjacent positions; Sexton playing backup point guard and Isaac Okoro starting at the 3. That means the team needs a reliable backup shooting guard, ideally a reliable knockdown shooter. Dylan Windler might be able to fill that role, but he has to stay healthy; to this point that hasn’t happened, and the Cavs will need a backup plan.
If the Cavaliers could combine Sexton’s scoring package with Okoro’s defensive tools and size, and Dylan Windler’s shooting stroke, they could have an All-Star guard at the 2. As it is they have three very different pieces and have to figure out how and if they fit together.
Needs: Size, reliable backup option, development
Evaluating the state of the SG position: Offseason Plan
Unlike the point guard position, the Cleveland Cavaliers are both in need of addressing the shooting guard position and more likely to do so, either in the NBA Draft or in free agency. It is unlikely the rotation looks exactly the same as it did a season ago, despite the principles all being under contract.
Long-term the “Sexland” combination of Darius Garland and Collin Sexton probably isn’t viable due to the defensive concerns. No matter how those two grow as offensive players, their lack of size and long path towards positive defensive impact cap the ceiling of the pairing too low. Given their draft pedigree and production thus far it is unlikely they could afford both in a primarily point-guard only rotation, so at some point they will need to move on from one or the other.
That could be this offseason, as they are rumored to be shopping Sexton to some degree. Moving him for a wing option could slide Okoro to the 2. If they swap Sexton for draft picks, then they have multiple options to address the position in the 2021 NBA Draft.
That could mean taking Jalen Green with the third overall pick. The 6’5″ guard prospect is an athletic marvel who projects as a future offensive star, and his strong free-throw shooting helps to keep that projection high as a shooter and finisher. Defensively he has questions, but at 6’5″ those answers are a lot easier than Sexton’s.
If Green is gone when they draft at 3, they could look to address the position later in the draft. Assuming they get back a 2021 first-round pick back, they could look at 2-guard options such as Moses Moody, Cameron Thomas or Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland.
Whether or not they move Sexton, they should move on from Damyean Dotson’s non-guaranteed contract and bring in a reliable option in free agency or the second round. With Windler’s injury history the team needs another option at the position. Going the free agency route could mean a reclamation projection (Josh Jackson, for example) or a proven commodity (Kent Bazemore). Buying back into the second round could net a productive college player such as Quentin Grimes or Joe Wieskamp, or an upside play such as B.J. Boston or DJ Steward.
Something needs to change at the shooting guard position for the Cavaliers. That could be a significant move, trading Collin Sexton and completely renovating the position. It could also be a move or two on the margins, swapping out options behind Sexton but giving him another few months before revisiting the trade idea in the offseason.
The current rotation is a collection of players with pronounced strengths and weaknesses, which in the right situation can come together to strike gold, but also make lineups more difficult to construct. This offseason could be an opportunity to find a more well-rounded option, or to lean into the variance and see how the chips fall.