Cavs: Revisiting statistics predictions for Darius Garland, Collin Sexton

Looking back at my stats predictions for Sexton

My predictions: 13.2 PPG on 54.2 percent true shooting, 3.2 APG, 29.1 MPG and 80 games active

Sexton’s 2019-20 stats thus far: 20.8 PPG on 56.0 percent true shooting, 3.0 APG, 33.0 MPG and 65 games active

I was pretty off when it comes to Collin this season, when factoring in that I would’ve expected a drop-off for him as a scorer with Love being healthier and I expected Garland to be more aggressive and more effective as a three-level scorer.

Where I was off the mark: Scoring/minutes workload

I really thought Sexton was going to drop in terms of scoring output by 3.4 points per contest? Wow, I couldn’t have been more off on that.

Sexton has averaged 20.8 points per outing this season on 56.0 percent true shooting, and even factoring in him having a nightmarish December in terms of three-point shooting, Sexton has still shot 38.0 percent from deep in 2019-20.

Additionally, post-All-Star break, Sexton was on a heck of a tear as a scorer, and efficient scorer at that, as he put up 25.5 points in those 11 games on 63.1 percent true shooting, as noted by NBA.com.

Throughout this season, Sexton has shown more and more growth in manipulating pick-and-roll matchups to get to his spots, has proven to have a knack for getting more opportunities for easy buckets on the break, and his off-ball feel has gotten better as a cutter.

Really, I couldn’t have been more off when it comes to Sexton’s scoring output, and Collin could very well be Cleveland’s top scorer for several years, as he’s only going to get more dangerous with him only being 21.

Along with the scoring output, I was somewhat off the mark when it comes to Sexton’s minutes workload. I would’ve thought he might’ve played a bit less at this point, but that clearly hasn’t been the case, and with the constant pressure Sexton puts on opposing defenses, he might play even more than the 33.0 minutes he’s played thus far this year.

So where was I right with my Sexton predictions then?

Where I’ve hit: Secondary playmaking

Sexton is never going to be confused for a 7.0-8.0 assist per game player, but that’s not what the Cleveland Cavaliers will ever be expecting from him, nor should fans.

Granted, where I was right when it comes to Sexton I’d say was the secondary playmaking aspect. I predicted that Sexton would put up 3.2 helpers per outing this season, and Sexton has averaged 3.0 to this point, with the league currently suspended.

In the past month-plus leading up to the season suspension, though, Sexton had shown improved feel when it came to finding dump-offs to bigs such as Tristan Thompson and Nance, and he was clearly finding shooters such as Osman and Love more and sensing when help was coming to his drives and pull-ups. That improved feel often led to better overall shots for the Cavs, who were 10th in the NBA in effective field goal shooting post-All-Star break.

While I won’t ever expect a score-first player in Sexton to be a high assist player, he had been showing plenty of growth as a secondary playmaker, and at times, primary initiator for others, as evidenced by him having 4.3 assists per game in his last 15 games. Hopefully that sort of assist average can be Sexton’s in coming years.

So, looking back on my 2019-20 statistics predictions for Garland and Sexton, I was definitely hit and miss, and really was way off the mark when it came to Sexton’s scoring.