The Cleveland Cavaliers have six guards that will likely be getting meaningful minutes in the 2019-20 season, which is a bunch, but something will give.
The Cleveland Cavaliers will be playing a bunch of guards meaningful minutes in the 2019-20 season, due to their roster construction, and the players involved probably just needing their share of the ball to get into a rhythm and have the playmaking burden shared.
The Cavaliers played a bunch of guards last year, and due to injuries to bigs such as Kevin Love, John Henson, Tristan Thompson and Larry Nance Jr., and the team’s lack of natural wings/small forwards, the Cavs had to be more guard-oriented, and players such as Cedi Osman and David Nwaba had to play the 4 far too often.
Anyway, Cleveland will again be playing a bunch of guards next year big minutes, because the Cavs have two key young pieces in Collin Sexton and Darius Garland that need to play considerable minutes together throughout next season and likely in coming years due to their high draft selections and both being able to create their offense, and Jordan Clarkson, Matthew Dellavedova and Brandon Knight will likely all warrant rotational minutes at some points (though those last three names are all expiring).
I’d also think Cleveland will want 2019 NBA Draft 30th overall selection (via reported trade) Kevin Porter Jr. to have some instances where he’s creating for himself and occasionally, others, too, and he’ll warrant some minutes at the 2, too (though I’d think he’ll have to play the 3 a good chunk as well for head coach John Beilein).
So in terms of statistical predictions for the 2019-20 season, we’ll start with the three expiring guards first, and begin with Clarkson.
To note, too, I did not include reported training camp guard invitees in Levi Randolph, J.P. Macura and Malik Newman in these predictions due to me believing they won’t make the active roster, at least for a good while, and considered potential two-way and camp invitee Sindarius Thornwell, a player I could see landing a spot on the active roster at least going into the regular season for his defensive ability, more of a wing.
2019-20 predictions for Clarkson: 13.1 PPG on 54.2% true shooting, 2.0 APG, 24.7 MPG and 38 games active
Clarkson will play a good amount for Beilein and his staff, because of his bench scoring, which we’ve often talked about here at KJG.
Clarkson led qualified Cavaliers in scoring in 2018-19 with a career-best 16.8 points per game on a decent (considering the usually lack of spacing around him) 53.9% true shooting in 27.3 minutes per game (per Basketball Reference).
With Kevin Love hopefully back and healthier more in 2019-20, though, I would think Clarkson will be relied on less to score in his minutes on the floor, and I’d think will be playing more off the ball, when considering other guards that could play a share of the minutes, such as Dellavedova and at times Knight, and obviously Sexton and Garland.
So why only the 38 games active?
I personally see Clarkson as a piece other teams might want to trade for on an expiring deal given his bench scoring pop and/or bit of secondary playmaking, and see him being dealt around that time mid-season in early to mid-January by Cleveland (perhaps for two second-round picks and an expiring wing) likely in order to free up more minutes for the younger guards and/or being able to play Garland and/or Sexton off the ball some with Dellavedova handling some of the offensive setup.
I could see him possibly bringing back a first-round pick if the Cavs send out expiring big Henson (provided he can show some shot blocking and an interior defensive presence), too in maybe a three-team deal where a contender wants to offload a bad contract.
2019-20 predictions for Knight: 6.2 PPG on 52.3% true shooting, 1.7 APG, 16.7 MPG and 22 games active
Knight is a player that’s not nearly able to explode the way he used to off-the-bounce, but he’s still a capable scorer when given chances to operate in the pick-and-roll in the mid-range area and can hit three-point shots at a respectable clip, off-the-catch, especially (a career 35.4% shooter from there, per Basketball Reference).
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While I could potentially see Beilein and the organization wanting to keep him around through the deadline, I don’t see them just benching him mostly as the opening quarter of the season or so concludes.
He’ll probably get some run in the opening part of the 2019-20 year, but Knight is not nearly the scorer anymore Clarkson is, and he’s a liability defensively, though of course, injuries have some to do with that.
Nonetheless, Knight is a very capable three-point shooter off-the-catch, seems to be a really good teammate and can provide a team looking to offload a bad contract with a suitable rotational playmaker, and he did show something in his games played offensively with Cleveland last year, as he averaged 8.6 points and 2.3 assists in 22.9 minutes per game (per Basketball Reference).
Taking that into account, too, him potentially being involved in a three-way deal (also maybe with Henson involved) seems reasonable, in particular, if an interested team/teams are combo guard-needy and are willing to part with two future second-round picks down the road that they may deal away anyway.
I could feasibly see a possible postseason team going for him on an expiring deal, and the Cavs need to let youngsters play a bunch.
2019-20 predictions for Dellavedova: 4.9 PPG on 52.7% true shooting, 3.2 APG, 16.6 MPG and 49 games active
I’ll always be a fan of Dellavedova, and I’m not the only Clevelander that’s said that a number of times throughout the years. In terms of Delly’s value, I personally see him as a stabilizing type that can play here and there to allow Sexton or Garland to take a breather and/or play more off the ball.
Even with Dellavedova being more of a catch-and-shoot guy to a large degree, he’s a player that Beilein will probably be able to trust when it comes to getting players around him in the right position, initiating ball-swings, and finding players such as likely a combination of Nance, Zizic, Windler, Porter, Garland, Love and perhaps two-way inside-out big Dean Wade.
Dellavedova’s vision should fit in right in-line with Beilein’s ball and man movement-oriented offense, and Dellavedova’s also a solid defender against opposing 1’s a good amount of 2’s when healthier.
That last part is the problem, though, and given Delly’s reported concussion history and/or symptoms, I do see the Cavs keeping him through the 2020 deadline which I’m a fan of (and hope they can sign him back on a team-friendly deal next offseason), but the 49 games seems reasonable due to the Cleveland Cavaliers likely using precaution with Dellavedova and young players needing a good bulk of the minutes-share, anyhow.
2019-20 predictions for Porter: 7.4 PPG on 53.1% true shooting, 3.3 RPG, 17.4 MPG and 65 games active
Porter is a player that is really, really talented, as KJG contributors have discussed all the time, and even in the time leading up to the 2019 NBA Draft.
He is a tremendous athlete and should be able to score when he’s on the floor, but as KJG contributors have also mentioned in numerous instances, he’s probably going to take time to adjust to the NBA level, and his 9.5 points per game and only starting in four contests at USC while only appearing in 21 games (per Sports Reference) due to reported suspension and injury hurt his lone collegiate season, as our own Robbie DiPaola touched on.
Porter is a player that should be able to fill it up in spurts off the bench for Beilein and his staff, though, as he’s shown the capability with his handle to get separation from defenders and I would think that as the year progresses, he’ll get more run and should have some rotational playmaking chances where he should be able to do damage in pick-and-roll, along with knock down shots from deep with attention drawn to a combination of teammates such as Sexton, Garland, Osman, Love and at times, Ante Zizic inside.
I agree with our own Tyler Marling as well, in that I see Porter as a player that the Cleveland Cavaliers will find has outstanding defensive potential as well which could enable him to establish himself as a wing stopper if he can stay locked in, and progress as an off-ball defender, which could allow him to get more transition opportunities where he’ll be a force.
Again, though, with the Cavs still having Clarkson in the fold, and I would think Dellavedova, to go with Sexton and Garland, I’d think it takes a while for Porter to really get big minutes. When he does, he should be a nice contributor, though (and is a good defensive rebounder), and there’s no doubt he has a high ceiling on both ends, particularly on-ball.
It’ll take time for the 19-year-old Porter, the 30th overall pick in this year’s draft, to make a bunch of impact, however, and nagging injuries could hamper him a bit, too, but he’ll definitely flash.
2019-20 predictions for Sexton: 13.2 PPG on 54.2% true shooting, 3.2 APG, 29.1 MPG and 80 games active
As KJG contributors have discussed countless times, Sexton showed that he could fill it up as a scorer in his rookie campaign, and particularly, after the All-Star break.
Last year, he was second among qualified players on the Cleveland Cavaliers in scoring with 16.7 points per game on 52.0% true shooting (per NBA.com), trailing only Clarkson, and again, closed the season really strong when it comes to scoring the basketball, and from three-point land, mostly.
Though the statistics didn’t show it, I was encouraged by the way Sexton was making better decisions in games and wasn’t forcing things as often with less contested mid-range shots taken, and as I’ve said a number of times, he was at least moving the ball to open shooters when the opportunities presented themselves more in the last few months of the season.
He’ll be mostly a scorer in terms of mindset in 2019-20 again, but I don’t see Sexton having a usage rate of 24.7% as he had as a rookie (per NBA.com), with Love likely on the floor much more with him next season, who is the team’s best offensive player and scorer, and Garland, Windler and Porter could eat into Sexton’s time as the Cavaliers’ main on-ball creator, too.
In turn, I see his scoring production dipping, but with more players that are realistic floor-spacers and scorers around him, that’s not on Sexton drastically regressing or anything, but those pieces need the ball in their hands to get into a rhythm. Still, though, his playmaking probably won’t get a glowing endorsement, and with the Cavs’ drafting of Garland, it’s hard to see Sexton growing a ton in that aspect.
As for the two games away from a complete season, I see the Cavs eventually giving Collin a rest two games this year is all; we all know he’s as hard-working as it gets, though, and having him do that won’t be easy, but it’s sensible at a few points in a long season for a key player in a rebuilding situation.
2019-20 predictions for Garland: 14.1 PPG on 53.7% true shooting, 3.6 APG, 28.8 MPG and 72 games active
Garland, in my opinion, is the player the Cleveland Cavaliers probably believe has the potential to be their franchise star, and general manager Koby Altman and the organization, along with Beilein, seemed thrilled to have landed him in the 2019 NBA Draft fifth overall.
Garland, despite the miniscule sample size in his collegiate career at Vanderbilt (just five games, per Sports Reference), due to a reported meniscus tear, is a player who has deep three-point shooting range that will likely translate to the NBA level, according to NBA draft pundits.
One could see that a bit at Vandy, as he had 16.2 points per game on 63.9% effective field goal shooting (which included a 47.8% clip from three-point land, per Sports Reference), and his off-the-bounce marksmanship is clearly what is the reason for many believing he has such a high ceiling as a primary playmaker/lead guard for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Again, though, Garland did only barely play in college, and with the Cavs having a bunch of guards currently, Garland’s minutes-share, even though I believe he’ll initially start, will be cut into for a decent while by Clarkson, and/or Delly/Knight to a degree, and it could take some time for Garland to have the game slow down for him, if you will.
With more offensive weapons around him than Sexton had that can make things happen for themselves in his rookie campaign, I see Garland putting up 14.1 points per game (which is close to Marling’s prediction for the 19-year-old) on a solid for a rookie 53.7% true shooting clip (mainly thanks to his range and volume from deep).
Due to precaution and perhaps some of an injury possibility with Garland, though, I could see him missing 10 games.
So that’s it for my statistics predictions for guards currently on the Cleveland roster.
What are yours for the current guards, Cavs fans?
Let us know in the comments section, on Twitter (@KJG_NBA) or on Facebook (@fansidedkjg). Thanks again, readers!