Once Healthy, Will Cavs 3-Guard Line-Ups Return?

Due to multiple injury problems, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been forced to use a lot of makeshift line-ups this season. David Blatt has used a number of unique combinations and has leaned on the likes of James Jones and Jared Cunningham probably more than he expected. The area of the team that has been impacted most by the injury toll is undoubtedly the backcourt. Kyrie Irving is still recovering from the knee injury he suffered during last season’s NBA Finals and no one really knows when he will return; although, he does seem to have a date in mind, per Dave McMenamin of ESPN:

"“There’s light at the end of the tunnel. In terms of a date, I do have one in my head, but obviously, I’m not going to share it for a little bit. I think all the rumors that everyone said in terms of [a] January [return] or whatever, I’ll let them stay out there. But for me, I’m just trying to take it one day at a time, and I’m just continuing the process.”"

So, while Cavs fans can take optimism out of that for Irving, the other guards on the roster have also battled through injury. Iman Shumpert, JR Smith and Mo Williams have all been bitten by the injury bug, as Shumpert injured his wrist at the beginning of training camp and isn’t expected back until January. Williams has suffered some ankle inflammation this season and missed a couple of games as a result of it.

For Smith, news only surfaced recently the he actually has been playing through a number of different issues over the past 12 months. Jason Lloyd of the Akron Beacon Journal has all the details:

"The Cavaliers guard has battled nagging injuries since the preseason and apparently one of which he wasn’t even aware. An X-ray over the weekend revealed a broken bone in his right thumb he never knew he had. Smith doesn’t know how or when it happened, but team doctors told him it occurred long enough ago that it healed on its own. But the hand is still prone to swelling whenever he gets hit on it, which happened Friday at Madison Square Garden.“Every time I get banged on it, it swells up,” he said.Smith is shooting just 30 percent from 3-point range, but is making up ground after a 1-of-7 start to the season. He missed three games with a right knee and quadriceps injury, which followed a hamstring injury during the preseason. He’ll never use injury as an excuse for poor play, but concedes his body is finally beginning to cooperate."

So, it is safe to say the Cavs are banged up and it is going to be a while until the team is fully healthy. With that in mind, a question that needs to be asked is: Will Cleveland and Coach Blatt return to the three-guard line-ups that they used many times last season, with varying numbers of success?

For reference, here all the most used three-guard line-ups from last season and their effectiveness together.

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So, what can we take from these numbers? Well, there are a few things.

The main lesson learnt from these figures is that the small-ball, three-guard line-ups that the Cavs employed last season were effective for the most part. When you consider the group of Irving, Smith, Shumpert, LeBron and Thompson had an offensive rating of 143.9, which resulted in a NET rating of 27.6, the numbers truly do stand out. This unit also played at a pace of 99.46, which is a good number for the Cavs, considering they play at one of the slowest paces in the league. With that same line-up on the court, but Dellavedova replacing Irving, the Cavaliers had an amazing defensive rating of 79 and a NET rating of 79 as well. Another small-ball line-up – featuring Dellavedova, Irving, Shumpert, Love and Thompson -, had a NET rating of 39.9 and an assist percentage of 68.8%.

So, why are these small-ball, three-guard line-ups so effective? Well, the NBA is now a fast-paced game which relies on quick ball movement and tough defense, so players must now play with more versatility then ever before. The three-guard line-ups allow Cleveland to do this. Lets take the Irving, Smith, Shumpert, LeBron and Thompson line-up for example. All of these guys bring something different to the table and they all help the team in different ways. Irving and LeBron can both handle the ball tremendously on the offensive end. They obviously can score whenever they like and when the defense focuses on the dynamic duo, it often leaves Smith wide open and, once he gets hot, defenses can forget it. Shumpert is the Cavs’ best perimeter defender, so he is able to guard the opponent’s best player, and a by-product of this is that it allows LeBron to save some energy on the defensive end. Smith has also shown an increased effort and hustle on the defensive end this season. Finally, Thompson is the glass cleaner in this line-up, as he is able to rebound everything and is also versatile enough to switch out onto guards during defensive possessions.

The beauty of these line-ups, though, is that the depth the Cavs have allows them to interchange and adjust the line-ups, while maintaining three-guards on the court and maintaining the same elite level of play. If Irving is struggling on the defensive end, sub him in for Dellavedova, who brings that non-stop defensive energy. But wait; won’t this negatively impact the offensive production? Well, probably, but in this case the Cavs can take off Thompson and put Love back in the game. This ensures that the offensive production remains high and Cleveland doesn’t lose any of the rebounding expertise that Thompson brings, as Love is just as good. This would give the Cavs a line-up of Dellavedova, Shumpert, Smith, Love and James. The versatility in this line-up gives the Cavs an adequate number of offensive weapons, defensive players and rebounding to outscore most teams on any given night.

The effectiveness of these three-guard line-ups is too much for the Cavaliers to ignore, but a by-product of them will be the minutes distribution. The Cavs injury problems have led to some unique rotations. Williams isn’t going to be playing 31.1 minutes a night once everyone is healthy, nor will Cunningham be playing 11.5 minutes a night. Three-guard line-ups will increase the minutes total of Irving, Shumpert and Smith, while Timofey Mozgov’s minutes may suffer as a result. Here is a look at some of the projected minutes if the Cavaliers predominantly utilize the three-guard line-ups once the team is healthy.

Guards:

Irving- 30 minutes

Smith- 25 minutes

Shumpert- 25 minutes

Williams- 20-25 minutes

Dellavdova- 5-10 minutes.

Bigs:

Love- 30-35 minutes

Thompson- 25-30 minutes

Mozgov- 15-20 minutes

Now, of course these are just projections. No one knows how Shumpert and Irving will respond from their injuries, and how long it will take them to play themselves back into game-shape. Maybe Irving plays 25 minutes instead of 30 to ensure he is at a peak health level before the playoffs. Same with Shumpert. Some games, the Cavs may be struggling with their three-point shooting, which would require more of Smith and less of Shumpert. If they’re struggling with the defense, more Shumpert will be required. It all depends on the nature of the game, and the opponent, which is the beauty of these three-guard line-ups. The Cavaliers guards are so talented that it gives the Cavs the luxury of interchanging them depending on the nature of the game.

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Also, another interesting aspect that could arise from these three-guard line-ups is that it could help maintain LeBron James and lower his minutes. Currently, James is playing 36.2 minutes a game, which is probably too much. Cleveland understands the importance of keeping James’ minutes down to ensure his body is peaking during playoff time. So, could the effectiveness of the three-guard line-ups limit LeBron’s minutes to say 30-32 minutes a night? Possibly. Obviously, there will be games where James plays 40 minutes – he is that good and some nights the Cavs will need his production – but Cleveland is doing everything they can to lower James’ minutes totals and the three-guard line-ups can go a long way in helping the cause.

Cleveland should go back to using the three-guard line-up once they get healthy for multiple reasons. It gives the team a number of different playmakers on both ends of the floor, and the interchangeable nature of the line-ups allows the Cavs to surprise opponents in new ways every time they take the floor.