Tristan Thompson Deadline Passes; Now What?

Many Cleveland Cavaliers fans stayed up until midnight waiting to see if Tristan Thompson would sign the Qualifying Offer. The QO was the 1 year deal the Cavs had to extend to Thompson to make him a Restricted Free Agent. Thompson, and his agent, had until midnight to accept that deal. Rich Paul had reportedly threatened that Thompson would indeed sign it and then leave after the season. The Cavs called his bluff.

Last night, Paul had to fold that hand.

So what does that mean for Thompson and the Cavs moving forward. First, Sam Amico gives us a simple, quick breakdown of what could happen:

"His options now are either to sign a long-term contract with the Cavs, sign an offer from an opposing team (which the Cavs could match), or continue his holdout. March 1 is the last day Thompson can sign an offer sheet. Should he sit out until then, the Cavs would have the option of tendering another qualifying offer in July."

So simple and perfectly accurate from our guy Sam. So let us break down what each of those options mean in detail, starting with the last he mentions and moving backwards:

Holdout

Thompson and his agent, much like Kam Chancellor in the NFL, can decide to holdout. The hope of Thompson and Paul would be that the team would struggle without their star bench big or at least will see the need for him. This is what happened with Anderson Varejao years ago. He held out until December.

Holding out is the only leverage that Tristan has at this point. Signing the QO and only playing for the Cavs for one more year was a much bigger threat. Greg Monroe signed his QO last year with the Detroit Pistons then left to sign with the Milwaukee Bucks this offseason. That threat was real because Thompson could still benefit.

Holding out has little benefit for either the player or the team. A game of chicken as it were.

Sign Offer Sheet With Other Team

This is how the Varejao holdout ended. He signed an offer sheet with the then Charlotte Bobcats, for less than the Cavs original offer, and the Cavs matched it. Thompson has had all offseason to sign such an offer sheet with another team. We have no reports of any contract negotiations with any other team so far.

So what teams, like the Bobcats did with Andy, could offer Thompson an offer?

There are only 2 teams that can offer Thompson more than $10 million a year for this season. The Philadelphia 76ers have around $11 million for the first year of a deal with Thompson while the Portland Trailblazers can offer about $16 million a year. Neither team can offer Thompson a 5 year deal, like the Cavs can.

That means the max offer sheet Thompson can get from another team, the Blazers, is 4 years, $64 million. The Cavs have reportedly already offered 5 years, $80 million. The same $16 million average that the Blazers can offer, for one less year, is something the Cavs are already amenable to. Should the Blazers, or another team, offer Thompson the max they can, the Cavs will match.

At some level, signing an offer sheet is slightly pointless for Thompson as the Cavs are likely to match. The only benefit for Tristan is if he wants a shorter term deal to try to capitalize on the upcoming predicted cap spike. The minimum length of any offer sheet is 2 years. Even at that short, the Cavs are likely to match and hope to sign him once he is a free agent again.

Agreement With Cavs

To be very clear, Thompson cannot sign the QO at this point. That means Thompson can only sign with the Cavs for the length of contract the team offers. The odds that the Cavs offer Tristan a 1 year deal, and that he accepts it, is near zero.

The Cavs likely has the 5 year, $80 million offer on the table but could now lower that number. With Varejao (a different player, GM, team and Salary Cap) he ended up signing for less than the original reported figures. At this point the Cavs are negotiating against the offer that the Blazers can put up, $16 million a year. That is the ceiling for a deal at this point in time, maybe slightly higher so Thompson/Paul don’t look like they lost.

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That means the real negotiations right now will likely be related to length and options. Thompson and Paul likely want a deal that they have the option to opt out of in case Thompson continues to develop and the cap goes up as expected. Will he sign for 3 years with the ability to opt out after 2 years? Will the Cavs be open to possibly losing Thompson, or having to negotiate with Paul all over again in 2 years?

The likely outcome is that Tristan Thompson signs a contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers. He lost a ton of leverage when the deadline passed last night, can’t get more money or years from another team and can’t sign for only 1 year.

Thompson should be back with the Cavs sometime this year. The questions now are When and For How Long?

Are you surprised by the limited options that Tristan Thompson has going forward?

Next: Sorting Out the Ray Allen, Cavs Options