February 15, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Western Conference guard Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors (30) drives against Eastern Conference forward LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers (23) during the second half of the 2015 NBA All-Star Game at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
The NBA Finals. It was simply meant to be: the Eastern Conference’s best team, and the one most expected pre-season, the Cleveland Cavaliers, will square off against the Western Conference’s number best team, and the best team overall this season, the Golden State Warriors, in the NBA Finals.
After months of debating and arguing who truly is the best team in the NBA, which started burning after the Cavs trades in mid-January, these two teams will now settle things, with Game One tipping off on Thursday Night in the Oracle.
Both teams have had quite different paths to get to the NBA Finals. The Warriors had to battle through some young, talented and differently styled teams in the West. The young, Anthony Davis led New Orleans Hornets were a mere appetizer. The rough and tumble, grind it out Memphis Grizzlies put up a deft fight. The Houston Rockets, with their analytics and James Harden led offense, were less of a battle than we expected but the games were tough.
The Cavs cruised with sweeps in the 1st Round and the Eastern Conference Finals. In between was their toughest series against the Chicago Bulls. Both the Boston Celtics and the Bulls tried to play physical to contend with the more talented Cavs’ team. The Hawks hoped their system and shooting would help overcome their weaknesses. All were mistaken but in their own ways helped prepare the Cavs for the NBA Finals.
The clash of play-styles between the two teams is extremely intriguing. The Cavs have had an amazing defensive run through the playoffs, even if you adjust for their weaker offensive opponents. Their offense is led by isolation and pick and roll that lead to penetration. The Warriors’ have a solid defense but are buoyed by their hot like lava offense behind shooters Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Much like playing against Peyton Manning, the Warriors offense often puts pressure on the opponents offense to keep up.
This series also presents mouth-watering individual match-ups at each position. How will Kyrie Irving play Curry? Will Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith get more time defending Klay or Curry? How will Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala look to slow down LeBron James? Will Tristan Thompson‘s game continue to explode on the national stage? And which tough, rugged defensive center will impact the game more?
Let’s explore which team has the advantage at each position.
Next: Point Stars
Feb 26, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) dribbles against Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) in the fourth quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Point Guard- Kyrie Irving VS Stephen Curry
If Irving was fully healthy, we would be salivating over this match-up. Kyrie’s amazing handles and ability to finish at the rim, although Curry is no slouch in that respect either. Curry’s ability to hit shots from everywhere, especially from deep, although Irving is no slouch from deep either. Unfortunately, Irving’s injury clouds everything. Assume in everything you read here that we just don’t know. The rest could have Irving close to 90% or he could step on a foot and need to sit a game or two. We have no idea, and neither does he or the Cavs.
When Irving is at his best, very few can stay in front of him with the ball. He can start and stop, contort his body and leave defenders, big and small, feeling foolish. Irving’s numbers have dropped in the Playoffs due to his injuries but he was a constant scorer and showed great development as a distributor as the season went on.
Irving isn’t just a to the basket point guard. Irving led the Cavs in the regular season in 3 point shooting at 42%. He attempted 5 a game, behind only J.R. Smith and Kevin Love. Somewhat surprisingly, Irving’s backup, Matthew Dellavedova, was 2nd on the team at 41% but only attempted 2.5 a game. Irving’s ability to hit shots from anywhere is what opens up his driving. Teams can’t sit back and allow him to bomb from deep, because he will and it will be over.
Curry is a similar player. He is a better shooter, 44% from deep, but not as good of a driver/finisher as Irving. His ability to shoot, create open lanes and be decisive quickly, all create a ton of problems for defenses. Curry, the league’s MVP, attempted over 8 three pointers per game this season, yet he also averaged almost 8 assists, 4.3 rebound and 2 steals per game. An all around player. His 3.1 turnovers per game are not surprising as much as he handles the ball.
Defensively neither is known as a standout but Curry’s steals are impressive in a vacuum. Curry will likely get Irving often but could cede to the bigger Thompson if things aren’t going well or to keep him fresh for the offensive end. The Cavs will have to get creative with Irving on defense, possibly even moving him on to the much bigger Harrison Barnes to keep Curry from going nuclear.
Curry, who struggled with ankle issues early in his career, is healthy. His post-season numbers are all very similar besides a few more shot attempts and a whopping 11 attempts from deep a game. He is hitting on all cylinders while Irving only hopes to get close to normal.
Advantage- Warriors – Even if Irving was healthy, the slight edge would be to the MVP. Not fully healthy, the edge is clear.
Next: Shump Vs Klay
May 22, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Iman Shumpert (4) warms up prior to game two of the Eastern Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Shooting Guard- Iman Shumpert VS Klay Thompson
This is an interesting comparison of style clashes. Shumpert being inserted into the starting lineup gives the Cavs a stud defender versus the stud offensive player. Much like the Irving/Curry comparisons, that doesn’t mean the two players are bad on their opposite ends. Shump’s offense has improved steadily through the season and Klay’s length and defense have never been questioned.
During the season, Shumpert averaged just over 7 points a game on 41% from the field and 34% from long range. He also pulled down almost 4 rebounds and had over a steal a game. In the NBA Playoffs he is averaging 10 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1 steal while increasing his deep shooting to 37%. His shooting has been crucial for the Cavs, especially when they go small with a PG, Shump, J.R., LeBron and Tristan as their starting 5. That puts 3 shooters and a deadly roll guy around James.
Defensively, Shumpert has earned his keep. With active hands and feet, Shump’s timing on defense is great. He gets in front of drivers, gets his hands on balls and stays active. He rarely loses his man off the ball even while providing great help defense. He never seems to tire, even when his groin was hurt a few weeks back. Thompson’s shooting and size will be a fun match-up for Iman.
Klay had a great season beside Curry as well. 21.7 PPG on 46% from the field and 44% from behind the arc. Thompson doesn’t allow opponents to help off of him to stop Curry. When they do, Klay hits daggers. His post-season numbers have dropped, to 19.7 PPG on “only” 43% shooting from downtown.
The 6’7″ long armed defender can also create havoc on the defensive end. When engaged, Klay can bother many guards and some small forwards. He can stay in front of them, knock the ball away and contest shots. The Warriors may move Thompson on to Irving and can use him to try to bother J.R. Smith’s shots. Shumpert will attempt to tire Thompson out with his activity.
The concussion that Klay suffered still lingers. While he returned to practice, he still has not been cleared for Game 1. As we know from Mike Miller, and for Browns fans Jordan Cameron, these things can linger.
Advantage- Warriors
Next: LeBron Vs Barnes
Feb 26, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) drives against Golden State Warriors forward Harrison Barnes (40) in the fourth quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Small Forward- LeBron James VS Harrison Barnes
Advantage- Cavs – Just wanted to get the obvious out of the way. LeBron versus anyone is advantage Cavs.
LeBron’s game has never been less efficient, yet more impressive than it has been in the NBA Playoffs. As he enters his 5th straight NBA Finals appearance, he has figured out how to get it done with whoever is around him. Because of the attention he draws and his playmaking, the Cavs have had different players step up throughout the Playoffs.
LeBron is only shooting 43% from the floor in the Playoffs and a measly 18% from beyond the arc. Yet he is averaging 28 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists per game for a team that is 12-2. Not to mention his 1.8 steals and 1.3 blocks per game in the post-season.
His regular season was also a bit of a drop off, especially early in the year. Yet he still finished with 25 points on 49% from the field and 35% from downtown. He put in his great all around stats with 6 boards and 7.4 assists per game. Those numbers were brought down by a non-LeBron first couple months to the season.
Defensively he may have lost a step but James is a smart, active, fast and big defender. He makes it tough on almost anyone. He has defended point guard and centers. With Irving hobbled, the Cavs have not unleashed full LeBron Defender often in the Playoffs, so he could save his energy. That could change in the NBA Finals.
Harrison Barnes, selected after Dion Waiters, has established his role on the Warriors this year. After splitting time with veteran Andre Iguodala for a couple seasons, Barnes is now the clear starter. He only averaged 10 points per game but with Curry and Klay, his job was not to score. He shot good percentages, 48% from the field and 41% from deep, on only 2.6 attempts per game. He is a long, active defender but lacks the size to stop LeBron either in the post or with a head of steam.
Barnes offense picked up in the last series, with the Rockets, but the Cavs are likely to try to let him, not the Splash Brothers, beat them in the NBA Finals. Expect James, or whoever is guarding Barnes, to help off of him often. He could make the Cavs pay, as his percentages indicate, but they are willing to allow that as he doesn’t shoot often. Iguodala, with his strength and veteran knowledge could see a little more time this series.
Next: X-Factors: Tristan Vs Draymond
Dec 29, 2013; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers power forward Tristan Thompson (13) dribbles the ball in front of Golden State Warriors small forward Harrison Barnes (40) and small forward Draymond Green (23) in the third quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Power Forward: Tristan Thompson VS Draymond Green
The Cleveland Cavaliers went from one of the best “Stretch 4” guys in Kevin Love to Tristan Thompson after Love’s injury against the Celtics. The concern for the Cavs was the dropoff from Love to Thompson as well as the lack of shooting and depth in the front court.
Instead Thompson has exploded on the scene and is set to cash in this off-season after turning down a lucrative extension offer last summer. Thompson still is not a great shooter, the Cavs still have limited depth in the front court and losing Love is still a big deal. During the regular season, Tristan averaged 8.5 points and 8 rebounds a game in 26.8 minutes a game. He is now putting in almost 10 points and rebounds a game, with an astounding 4 offensive boards per game, in 34.3 minutes per game.
Thompson never seems to get tired, plays relentless defense and knows his limitations. He doesn’t take many shots, knowing that the Cavs have better options. His defense stifled Paul Milsap and also gives the Cavs a chance to switch pick and rolls often on defense. Offensively he finished high hand offs, especially from Delly, well and has learned better timing putting the ball back up.
Draymond Green is a do everything, multi-faceted forward. Undersized at the 4, Green provides a little of everything for the Warriors. His raw numbers don’t show the impact he has overall. He can shoot, though his 3 point shooting has plummeted to 26% in the post-season, rebound, pass and defend. In the regular season he led the Warriors with 8.2 rebounds per game, while contributing 11.7 points, 3.7 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.3 blocks.
Many wonder what he might get paid for his overall game this off-season. Will he shine in a bigger role or does Curry and Thompson give him the space to do what he does? He has increased his scoring, rebounds and assists in the post-season. His defense may be key against LeBron but his boxing out of Tristan will be important as well. With his low center of gravity, quick hands and basketball IQ, Green is a stellar defender inside and out.
Advantage- Warriors
Next: Overseas Big Men
Jan 9, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers center Timofey Mozgov (20) attempts a shot over Golden State Warriors forward Harrison Barnes (40) in the second quarter at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Center- Timofey Mozgov VS Andrew Bogut
Mozgov has been a monster around the rim defensively for the Cavaliers this post-season. With his size and strength, Mozgov has been able to either block or affect any defender that drives the lane against the Cavaliers. Throughout these playoffs, when the defender is within 6 ft or less of the basket, Mozgov is only allowing opponents to shoot 36.8% and when the defender is within 10 ft or less, Mozgov is only allowing opponents to shoot 40.8%.
Mozgov’s size is game changing for the Cavs. He can take up space quickly, has long arms and quick responses both in altering shots as well as rebounding. His frame allows him to create great box outs that allow others the lane to get rebounds. On offense, Mozgov has some limits, specifically his hands. He struggles catching bounce passes and can fumble the ball on entry passes. Alley oops and put backs are where he makes his mark, as well as setting screens, on the offensive end.
Bogut is not the feared player that he once was. The undersized Green has more rebounds and a similar block number as the big Aussie center. The Warriors often went away from him during the season, both to preserve his health and to get a better offensive lineup on the floor. He only averaged 24 minutes a game, putting in 6.3 points. In the post-season his numbers have stayed pretty similar.
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It would not be shocking to see the Warriors only play their center around 24, or less, minutes a game. He is the team’s lone rim protection but they play a better overall game without him. Mozgov’s improved baseline jumper should help keep him a little honest near the hoop, and Thompson’s activity along, with LeBron and Kyrie driving, could cause him foul trouble.
Advantage- Cavs
Tally – Warriors 3 Cavs 2
Which match-up are you looking forward to the most in the NBA Finals?