May 12, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Matthew Dellavedova (8) celebrates his three-point basket in the third quarter against the Chicago Bulls in game five of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
The Cleveland Cavaliers are going into the Eastern Conference Finals starting Wednesday. The Cavs will face off with the Atlanta Hawks and we are excited to cover our team’s battle for a possible Finals appearance.
The Cavs got to this point with a ton of help from their complimentary players. While the season was defined by LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, the post-season has been the story of Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova. At the start of this season none of those 4 were in the starting lineup. 3 out of the 4, all but Delly, started in the Cavs series with the Bulls.
What a big change. With LeBron, Irving and Love the focus was on their dominate offense. With Love out and Irving limited, with a ton of help from two bad offensive teams, the Cavs have won primarily with defense. That is not to say that each of those 4 have contributed on the offensive end because they have.
J.R.’s shooting helped open up the floor when nobody was hitting. Shumpert’s shooting, attacking the basket and timely offensive rebounds buoyed tough nights by James and Irving. Thompson’s offensive rebounding and rim runs for alley oops were huge sparks. Delly, the pin cushion for most Cavs fans this year, exploded offensively in Game 6 to wrap things up.
Next: Tough Decisions Ahead
May 12, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Iman Shumpert (4) shoots in the second quarter against the Chicago Bulls in game five of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
(Disclaimer: This is not an attempt to be negative or start a story. Instead this is something I am thinking about as a fan and since I am thinking about it I am guessing other fans have wondered it as well. I started writing because I am a fan and I will always stay a fan no matter what my “job” is.)
It leads me to the tough question: Can the Cavs keep the band together?
The Cavs are in a unique position that very few of their key players, or even their depth, is under contract for certain next year. Only Kyrie Irving, Anderson Varejao and Joe Harris are certainly under contract next year. The Cavs are all but certain to pick up the team option on Timofey Mozgov as well.
Next year is the 1st year for Irving new max contract extension, doubling his salary from $7 million to $14 million. Varejao’s extension, signed this off-season, is for just under $10 million a year. Harris is making a middling $845K that could be easily moved if needed. Timo will earn just under $5 million.
Four. 4 players are certain to return next year for the Cavaliers, 3 under contract and 1 with a team option almost certain to be picked up. That means 11 roster spots are up in the air. Lets take a look at all the current players that could go elsewhere next year:
Next: The Big Guns
Jan 31, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) and forward Kevin Love (0) against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center. The Cavaliers defeated the Timberwolves 106-90. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
LeBron James
LeBron isn’t going anywhere but does have a player option. Depending how the Salary Cap is divided out, LBJ might be best to opt out of his $21.5 million to sign another deal. He has made it clear that he is not likely to take less than the minimum so put him down for at least $21.5 million next year.
Kevin Love
There has been far too much talk about what Love is going to do next year. He has stated on at least 4 different occasions that he is not leaving. His latest statement was that he would opt in for his almost $17 million next year. Even with his shoulder injury, $17 million is the least Love will be paid next year. Based on the salary cap, if Love leaves (we don’t think he will) the Cavs won’t be able to just sign another player at that price, unless teams figure out a sign and trade.
Next: Key Rotation Pieces
Jan 28, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Dorell Wright (1) drives between Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) and guard J.R. Smith (5) in the second quarter at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
J.R. Smith
A player whose performance has shocked us since his acquisition. J.R. Swish has been the perfect compliment to the team. He doesn’t take many two point shots, hits his catch and shoot 3s and has played a surprisingly solid defense. Smith has a $6.4 million dollar player option for next year. At the time of the trade there was little thought that he would opt out. Now? Anything is possible. At this point it might be best for the Cavs if Smith does pick up that option.
Tristan Thompson
TT turned down a big contract extension during the off-season and it looks like it paid off. He hasn’t transitioned into a stellar offensive player but has just gotten better at what he is good at and has minimized his mistakes. He turned down 4 years and $52 million, reportedly, so he will at least be looking for $14 million. The Cavs will place a Qualifying Offer of just over $7 million on Tristan to make him a Restricted Free Agent. If Love stays, the Cavs will likely pay at least $14 million for their 1st big off the bench.
Iman Shumpert
Shump has teased for some years but now on a talented team, and in a contract year, he has blossomed. Shump may never be a knock down shooter but his form is good and he continues to develop. He is a good open floor player, can drive to the hole and generally finishes well (Been interesting how many dunks he has blown for the Cavs). Defense is his calling card. He has played great against a number of good offensive players. Now he could be looking for starting SG money and opportunity. The Cavs will place the Qualifying Offer of just under $4 million to restrict Shump. He is likely to get around mid-level ($5-6 million) offer from someone.
Matthew Dellavedova
Delly was a player that Cavs fans wanted to pay to get out of town. After Game 6, Delly is a new Cleveland folk hero. He can also join Thompson and Shumpert as a restricted free agent. The 6’4″ guard has made his mark as a defender but has greatly improved on the offensive end. He knows what he isn’t great at and has improved his catch and shoot ability. His qualifying offer is for just over $1 million but it will be interesting if someone tries to snipe away the young Aussie as the Cavs try to deal with the rest of their roster.
Next: The 'Other' Guys
May 4, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Mike Miller (18) rebounds in the first quarter against the Chicago Bulls in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Miller has a Player Option for just under $3 million. Miller has done little for the Cavs and is unlikely to get a bigger offer next year. Maybe such little pounding on his body will allow him to contribute next year.
Before Thompson, Smith, Shumpert and Delly were 4 players that were key to the Cavs success, using Haywood’s non-guaranteed to bring in more talent seemed like a no brainer. Now? Seems like it will most likely go unused or used to bring in a much smaller contract. The dreams of a Big 4 using Haywood’s $10.5 million voidable deal are probably out the window.
Jones’ production was minimal this season but picked up greatly near the end of the season and in the playoffs. His veteran’s minimum $1.5 million deal was for 1 year. It will be interesting if he wants to come back for another year and how much he might want to return.
Marion is going to retire. He basically was a non-factor all year, which surprised us greatly. A backup for LeBron, likely a veteran like Marion, should be a key target in the off-season. Marion was also signed only to the vet minimum.
Perk signed after getting traded and cut at the deadline. He has filled in for Varejao as a backup big but has little role for the team. Wouldn’t be shocked if Perk is back next year but he would be for the vet minimum and as the Cavs 5th big behind Timo, Love, Thompson and Varejao if all return as we hope.
Next: The Financials for Dan Gilbert
May 4, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers vice chairman Nate Forbes (left) and owner Dan Gilbert react in the fourth quarter in game one of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
So what does that mean for the Cavs and keeping the team together?
Assuming just the minimum numbers we list above, this is what the Cavs will be paying, all in millions:
- LeBron = $21.5
- Love = $16.7
- Irving = $14
- Thompson = $14
- Varejao = $10
- J.R. = $6.4
- Mozgov = $5
- Shumpert = $5
- Miller = $3
- Delly = $2
- Harris = $.9
11 Players = $98.5 million
The latest projections we have seen for next year’s Salary Cap is $67.1 with a tax line of 81.6. Both are expected to go up $20 million each of the two seasons following but, even before filling in the remaining 4 roster spots, Dan Gilbert would have $17 million in tax payments. The Repeater Tax penalties could become far more problematic in the years to come.
So what do the Cavs do? As long as LeBron and Love want to return, the Cavs will pay them. We assume they will bring back Thompson almost no matter what. They will at least want to keep one of Smith and Shumpert, likely preferably Shump based on his age and defensive abilities. If Smith opts out and Shump gets a big time offer, the Cavs could be in a tough position.
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Game 6 star Dellavedova joins Shumpert as an interesting case study in how teams will spend their cap money. Delly has size, plays great defense and has improved as a shooter. The Cavs value him but for how much? Could he, and maybe even Shumpert, be sacrificed to the financial realities that Gilbert faces with a competitive team?
Dan Gilbert was more than willing to spend money in LeBron’s 1st time with the team. That was before the punitive Luxury Tax system, one that Gilbert helped institute, was in place. His willingness to spend will be put to the test quickly.
What do you think happens next year with the team?