The Milwaukee Bucks made possibly the biggest addition of the trade market acquiring Orlando Magic Shooting Guard JJ Redick. The former Duke legend has perhaps enjoyed the finest season of his career, and has done so sort of quietly. That debate could be saved for some other time, currently we are gong to talk about his impact on the Buck’s offense going forward.
First, view Monta Ellis’ shot chart this season. Protect any young children.
This is horrible. Just awful. You know red is bad right? Okay good, because there is a lot of red here. Ellis has been an awful gunner, who is just shooting his team out of getting the 7 seed over Boston. Putting Redick in for him will be such an offensive boost from an efficiency point. Also, IF (HUGE IF) J.J. takes pressure off of Ellis shooting threes, we could see something similar to Monta’s Golden State Warrior days. As nice as that sounds, it is a very unlikely solution considering Ellis’ mental approach to the game. So, Milwaukee will benefit the more they play Redick over Monta.
Now looking at Redick’s offensive game. The Bucks are 21st in the NBA in 3FG% with a mark of 34.8%. Meanwhile J.J. is shooting 39% from three for a Magic team that doesn’t have a whole lot of options on offense. In Milwaukee, you could see both Redick’s and the team’s percentages rise. This is especially true when the 6th year shooting guard is shooting his three’s above the break (where 89.3% of his attempts are), as he shoots a much better mark of 39.2% compared to the Buck’s 34.7% of their attempts.
Further more, Milwaukee’s newest member is going to add a new dimension to their offense. Redick scores coming off a screen 30.1% of the time, which is a much higher percent of his offense than the Buck’s percentage of running the play 5.5%. Having a player that can create off ball movement like him will allow for a deeper Buck’s attack. Dunleavy ran this play 20% of the time, but he doesn’t (222 times for Redick to Dunleavy’s 99) run the play as consistently and as dynamically as Redick. Consistently having movement off the ball can help Milwaukee’s offense when it stagnates and lacks spacing.
Lastly, even hidden in the numbers, Redick is a better defender than Monta. The current Buck’s shooting guards defensive numbers are aided by the help defense of a defensive machine named LARRY SANDERS! The, for lack of a better term, rim protectors on the Magic are Glen Davis, Nikola Vucevic, rookie Andrew Nicholson, and the just traded Josh McRoberts and Gustavo Ayon. More than likely, none of these players would be one of the best 3 rim protectors on a Bucks team that has Dalembert, Udoh, and SANDERS! The only way to put this in statistical form is that the Bucks defense is 9 points worse without Ellis, which barely is a difference over the course of the season. By comparison, (adjusting for the percentage of minutes Redick plays) the Magic’s defense is 2.5 points per game worse with Redick on the bench. This shows the impact Redick has on his defense in comparison to the impact Ellis would have on this defense.
As a wrap up, I would love for you to imagine the Jennings-Redick-Dunleavy-Ilyasova-SANDERS! line up that is coming. It will be a lot of fun watching this lineup hoist a ton of threes while trying to make a playoff angle. J.J. also seems to be an upgrade over Ellis in nearly any angle you can look at it, and hopefully we see Milwaukee utilize him.